Prepared by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy with funding from CCS Fundraising, the Philanthropy Outlook 2026 report models how provisions in 2025 H.R. 1 may influence household and corporate charitable giving in the United States.
This report analyzes key policies using IRS tabulations, national survey data (Philanthropy Panel Study and Survey of Consumer Finances), and CECP corporate data, applying established economic methods to present low, central, and high estimates for each policy and their combined effects.
The analysis provides a framework for understanding how legislative changes could reshape both individual and corporate philanthropy in 2026.
What the Philanthropy Outlook 2026 report examines
- Household giving projections include: a universal charitable deduction for non‑itemizers ($1,000 single / $2,000 married), a 0.5% floor on itemized deductions, and a 35% cap on the value of itemized deductions for taxpayers in the top marginal tax bracket.
- Corporate giving projections include: a 1% of pre‑tax profits floor for deductibility, informed by CECP data and scenario modeling.
- Additional policy context discussed where data allow: standard deduction and SALT changes, the 60% of AGI deduction limit, estate tax exemption levels, and the Education Freedom Tax Credit.
Selected findings (central estimates)
- Universal charitable deduction (non‑itemizers): estimated +$4.39B in annual household giving and 6.0–8.7M additional donor households.
- 0.5% itemizer floor: estimated –$2.43B annual change in household giving.
- 35% cap for top‑bracket filers: estimated –$6.10B annual change in household giving.
- 1% corporate floor: estimated –$1.55B annual change in corporate giving; the analysis notes potential timing shifts (“bunching”).
- Combined estimate: –$5.69B change in total annual charitable giving under central assumptions.
What this means for your organization
Use the modeling in Philanthropy Outlook 2026 to pressure test your plan, see where participation may grow, understand how incentives at the top could shift giving, and prepare leadership and boards with clear ranges and assumptions from the report.
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