Philanthropy and Economic Outlook Webinar

Yes, growth projection values in the report are all in real or inflation-adjusted terms.

Giving from private family foundations is included under giving from foundations in The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025. DAF giving, however, is included under individual giving.

The report does not include the 2024 US presidential election as a factor in its projections, as presidential elections have historically not significantly affected charitable giving in aggregate. Learn more about trends in giving around presidential elections in CCS’s article “Charitable Giving During Presidential Elections.”

The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025 accounts for all giving, including outlier giving from high net-worth individuals, and focuses on aggregates, not averages. While we know that concentrated wealth greatly affects giving, exactly how is unclear.

The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025 does not consider the number of donors and individual gift amounts and only projects aggregate growth rates. However, the number of donors to nonprofits has trended down over time, so it is unlikely to be a growth driver in 2024 and 2025 giving.

The model used to forecast estate growth in The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025 does not have a variable that directly measures the impact of generational wealth transfers. However, historical trends in the report will likely capture the impact of a Great Wealth Transfer when it occurs. If they cannot capture impact in the short term, the model (which the IU Lilly Family School of Philanthropy optimizes each year based on predictive value) may contain a death rate or similar variable in future report editions.

It does not. The aggregate amount of donations received by each nonprofit sector tends to be more variable year-over-year, affected by complex factors, and is more challenging to project accurately.

The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025 does not differentiate between itemized and non-itemized individual giving. However, it bases its individual giving data on the 2023 Giving USA report, which does differentiate itemized and non-itemized individual giving. Additionally, The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025 report model does include the number of itemizers as a variable but does not project the amount of giving that will come from households of specific demographics or wealth levels.

The report only considers climate change’s negative impact implicitly through historical data and recent trends.

CCS’s 2023 Philanthropic Landscape report compiles and analyzes the most recent data on giving from across industry sources. We recommend viewing it along with the CCS 2024 Philanthropy Pulse report for the latest data on nonprofit fundraising trends.

Giving total adjustments are usually made based on inflation activity and the availability of additional giving data. While giving in 2022 has initially been reported to total $499.33 billion — a decline of $17.32 billion from 2021’s record-setting giving — comparing 2022’s initially-reported giving total to 2021’s pre-adjusted, initially-reported giving total of $484 billion suggests that charitable giving actually increased by 3%. Giving USA will share 2023’s total giving in the summer of 2024.

The Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy finds that many economic indicators for estate giving lag a year behind. With consumer sentiment and net worth projected to grow even more in 2024 than in 2023, estate growth rates in 2025 will grow even more than in 2024.

As The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025 report is the first of its kind, CCS Fundraising and the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy did not make any projections for previous years. However, the methodology in the Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025 has been rigorously tested. Additionally, CCS will release a 2^nd edition of the report in 2027.

While top areas of giving from foundations are not a component of The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025 report, the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy does not anticipate foundation grant-making to diverge too significantly in the short term compared to the recent past. Eventually, giving from foundations may shift more significantly, but probably not in the next two years.

It is unclear where money from the Boomers will go as they transfer it to the younger generations. Often, donors give large bequests to foundations or other grantmaking institutions, so nonprofits may not immediately benefit from the Great Wealth Transfer but will likely experience a future boon.

While each foundation is different, grantmaking from foundations generally follows the market (with a slight lag), as investments often form their asset base. Most foundations grant approximately the required 5% of assets annually, though the amount can be calculated over a three-year rolling investment performance period.

At the time of the Philanthropy and Economic Outlook webinar, consumer prices seem to be increasing roughly in pace with other inflation measurements. The consumer price index increased about 3.2% year over year in February 2024, which, while higher than the targeted rate of 2%, was within historical norms. If different inflation indices continue to show large divergences, we may need to revisit trends in consumer prices.