Forecasting fundraising revenue can be difficult in any given year, especially in 2024, as the economy fluctuates and a presidential election looms. Amid so much uncertainty about the future, it helps to center your forecasting exercises around the following fundamental principles using our downloadable fundraising revenue forecast template.
- With so much unknown, focus on what you do know. As fundraisers, what we know is our donors—we know who they are, how they’ve given, and when they’ve given. We can use this information to make educated assumptions about how they might give next year.
- Focus on the funding sources disproportionately impacting the total funds raised. The Pareto Principle applies to many nonprofits, where 80-90% of funds come from 10-20% of donors. If you can understand what this top percentage of donors gives, you can better understand the following year’s fundraising revenue.
Combine our template with the following tips to develop your 2024 fundraising strategies.
Step 1: Get the Lay of the Land
Before making fundraising revenue projections, set yourself up for success by looking at the following resources.
Historic Philanthropic and Fundraising Data
It can be helpful to get an idea of the broader philanthropic landscape for overall giving statistics while keeping in mind that donors continue giving generously despite fluctuating economies. Further, Giving USA projects that total giving will increase in 2024 and 2025. It’s helpful to have this information as a backdrop for your projections.
If you’re on a computer, click on the three ellipses below and then the desktop icon to expand the graph. If you’re on your phone, pinch to zoom in and out.
Similarly, you should spend significant time understanding your own fundraising and donor data. We recommend starting with these basics, but you can pull additional pertinent information into your projections.
Year-Over-Year Total Funds Raised for at Least the Past Five Years
This data around your year-over-year revenue for the previous five years helps you understand your baseline. If you have data going back further than five years, that’s even better for forecasting purposes.
Top Current and Potential Donors and Their Giving Histories
Compile a list of donors (individuals, corporations, and foundations) with the potential to give $10,000 or more in 2024, including prospects who have given $5,000 or more in the past, along with high-scoring donors from your wealth screening ratings.
Subtotals by Method and Revenue Stream
To understand your revenue, look at the funds received by each method. Your revenue streams may include major gift solicitations, online fundraising, direct mail, or grant applications.
Last Year’s Gift
List the number of donors at each giving level in this chart, as a historic gift table is key to understanding your revenue breakdown.
Step 2: forecast revenue from Top Donors
Once you have your data, focus on predicting revenue from your top donor group. Remember, your best prospects are those who have already given generously to your organization.
Set Up a Tracking Worksheet
Given the importance of these few donors, track every top donor by name using the first tab of our fundraising revenue forecast template. This worksheet will allow you to note each donor’s historical giving, what you plan to ask them for in 2024, and what you think they’ll donate.
If you’re on a computer, click on the three ellipses below and then the desktop icon to expand the table. If you’re on your phone, pinch to zoom in and out.
Note: The data in the table below is fictitious and for illustrative purposes only.
Estimate Each Donor’s 2024 Gift
Remember that what you expect a donor to give differs from the amount you ask for. We recommend being conservative with gift projections but optimistic with request amounts. Fluctuating economic conditions don’t mean you can’t aim high and be bold in gift requests—your mission is always important. Still, it’s best to be conservative in estimating a likely 2024 gift.
- To start, look at the donor’s past giving and recent behavior.
- Consider your organization’s “batting average” for gift requests. Historically, how much did funders give compared to what was asked of them?
- Use research resources like wealth screening tools WealthEngine or iWave to gain context on a prospect’s financial capacity. Or reach out to us about our data analytics services that layer wealth screening results with custom affinity models to provide you with the most accurate estimates and precise insights.
Have a Personal Conversation with a Top Donor
Remember that the best indicators of what a donor might give come from personal conversations with the donor. Calling your top donors to check in is a great stewardship practice. During these calls, you can deduce the donor’s giving potential for the upcoming year. Additionally, these conversations can set up the next step: scheduling a solicitation meeting.
Step 3: Make a Plan for Each fundraising Revenue Stream
Once you have established projections for your top donors, it’s time to look at other fundraising revenue streams. Tab two of our fundraising revenue forecast template will help you track this information. For each revenue stream, look back at its past performance at your organization, then combine that organizational information with current industry trends.
Note: The data in the table below is fictitious and for illustrative purposes only.
Below are some overall trends we see. Remember that these trends are not universal for all organizations—even organizations of similar missions, sizes, and locations see their fundraising evolve uniquely.
Individual Major Gifts and Foundations
Giving by individuals remains the largest source of philanthropy in the US, and according to The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 & 2025, individual/household giving is predicted to increase by 2.6% in 2024 and by 3.4% in 2025.
Corporate Giving
Corporate philanthropy has remained steady in the last few years despite a fluctuating economy, the pandemic, and various worldwide crises. Growth of the Gross Domestic Product, a strong labor market, and low unemployment have strengthened this fundraising area, and corporate giving is predicted to increase by 1.9% in 2024 and by 2.6% in 2025, although these numbers are predicted to be below the historical 10-year, 25-year, and 40-year annualized average growth rates for this sector.
Direct Mail
Direct mail remains an effective fundraising strategy, with almost half of the surveyed organizations in the 2024 Philanthropy Pulse citing direct mailings as a donor engagement tactic. We suggest projecting flat or slightly increased totals here.
Online Giving
Digital giving has been trending up, as evidenced by the 63% of donors who prefer to give online via credit or debit card. We suggest projecting a mild increase, especially if your organization is undertaking digital marketing campaigns and harnessing events like #GivingTuesday.
Special Events
We advise being conservative with estimates around this engagement strategy, even though events are still a top donor retention strategy for 71% of nonprofits.
Bequests
Although bequest giving has declined recently, it remains a widely used gifting vehicle. Therefore, it’s best to plan conservatively.
Non-Bequest Planned Gifts
These gift types may see an increase. For example, donor-advised funds (DAFs) are on the rise, and The Philanthropic Trust estimates that DAFs now hold assets upward of $228 billion. We would therefore advise planning for an increase in non-bequest planned gifts in 2024.
Step 4: Put It All Together in a Gift Table
Next, use tab three of our fundraising revenue forecast template to bring all these data points together on your gifts table.
If you’re on a computer, click on the three ellipses below and then the desktop icon to expand the table. If you’re on your phone, pinch to zoom in and out.
Note: The data in the table below is fictitious and for illustrative purposes only.
The example above shows that most funds (95%) are projected to come from 12 donors. If we focus on accurately projecting these 12 donors’ gifts and making sure these gift projections come to fruition, we’ll be in good shape for 2024. Of course, we still need to get direct mail out the door, launch our online appeals, and fulfill the rest of our fundraising plans, but the bulk of our focus should be on the top part of this gift table.
Step 5: Turn Your Plan into Action
Now, it’s time to determine how to make your gift projections a reality. Tab four of our fundraising revenue forecast template will help plot out your projections month by month.
Keep This in Mind When Building Your Fundraising Revenue Timeline
- For top donors, the next gift will often be a year out from their last gift. For foundations, the foundation granting cycle will inform timing.
- You can also plot out the dates of your direct mail appeals and big online giving campaigns, so you know when to expect surges in revenue from these sources.
- Plotting out sources like bequests is difficult, but most of your revenue should be anticipated in the chart.
Our fundraising revenue timeline template, as shown in the example below, helps you compare projections versus reality. You’ll know early on if you were too conservative or optimistic in your projections. After reviewing your progress, you can adjust your projections for the remainder of the year as appropriate.
If you’re on a computer, click on the three ellipses below and then the desktop icon to expand the table. If you’re on your phone, pinch to zoom in and out.
Note: The data in the table below is fictitious and for illustrative purposes only.
Tips for Successful Fundraising Predictions
Keep the following principles in mind as you continue planning for 2024 and adjusting your course as the year progresses.
- Take time to pull and organize data and look at key trends.
- Focus on your top donors.
- Be optimistic with gift requests but conservative in projections.
- Lay your projections on a timeline so you can adjust in real time.
Happy forecasting!
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